Results
After generating the trajectories using the upper layer, we perform prognostics and risk assessment in the framework’s lower layer. To assess mission feasibility, we conducted 500 Monte Carlo simulations. We set a State of Charge (SoC) threshold (\(SoC_{\text{th}}\)) of 30% for determining mission success or failure. SoC predictions for six flight missions are shown in the following figure. For mission decision-making, we computed the mission success probability using the SoC Probability Density Function (PDF), \(SoC_{\text{th}}\), and a probability threshold (\(P_{\text{threshold}}\)) of 95%. As per Algorithm set-up, a mission is executed if the probability of arriving with an SoC of 30% is above 95%. The final decisions, are in the table below.
Mission ID |
Success Probability |
Decision |
|---|---|---|
1 |
0.97 |
Cleared for Flight |
2 |
0.00 |
Hold |
3 |
1.00 |
Cleared for Flight |
4 |
0.10 |
Hold |
5 |
1.00 |
Cleared for Flight |
6 |
1.00 |
Cleared for Flight |
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